TALES OF THE TAPE: Motive Helps Computers Help Themselves
By Roger Cheng
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
24 August 2004
Dow Jones News Service
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--For some, Motive Inc. (MOTV) is a victim of bad timing.

Motive, whose software helps diagnose and fix computer problems without a help desk technician in sight, only came to market in late June. The swathe of profit warnings in the software sector in the weeks that followed soured sentiment towards the Austin, Texas, company.

At $9.93, Motive's stock is below its $10 initial public offering price, despite 30% revenue growth in last quarter. Some analysts like its business model of bundling the software into other products such as servers and computers, rather than selling directly to businesses. This way, if companies stop spending on software, Motive's revenues remains intact.

Also, Motive is in the fastest-growing part of the $9 billion systems management market. However, with less than $100 million in revenues expected in the next 12 months, it's a minnow in a market dominated by the likes of International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) and Computer Associates International Inc. (CA).

Self-management tools are a new type of software poised for strong growth, said Jim Breyer, a managing partner at venture capital firm Accel Partners, which invested in Motive as a start up. Breyer's banking on it becoming a billion dollar market.

"We believe given the complexity of both network infrastructure and software, many companies will be focused on (Motive's software)," he said.

Investors figure big companies will use the software to free up IT support staff from attending to those everyday computer glitches which soak up so much time.

For example, U.K. telecommunications giant BT Group PLC (BTY) uses Motive's software to let customers diagnose and fix problems between their DSL modem and computer. BT executive Mike Galvin estimates the software cuts the number of tech support calls by 50,000 and saves the company about $1 million a month. Many of those calls are trivial, but it frees up BT's tech support for more pressing issues. The company recently signed Motive for another three years with an option for two more.

Multi-year deals are common for Motive. In fact, Motive Chief Executive Scott Harmon told Dow Jones Newswires about 40% to 50% of its expected revenue for the next 12 months has already been signed.

The company builds its software into the products of its customers, like BT, SBC Communications Inc. (SBC) and Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ).

"Traditionally, it's an after-market model. That's how the business works," said Harmon, who compared the normal model to having a customer buy a car, and then paying $10,000 for a diagnostic system to maintain and fix it.

"It's silly. You wouldn't put up with that in your car," he said. "It just makes more sense to build them into the products."

By co-branding the products with clients, and partnering with technology products suppliers, Motive doesn't feel the sting of a sudden tightening in business spending like so many software companies in the last quarter.

"If there's even a hiccup, those companies suffer immediately," Harmon said, noting his company isn't as affected because "we're not lined up at a CIO's door trying to sell our product."

Selling directly to original equipment manufacturers is becoming increasingly popular.

"Motive is at the tip of the arrow in terms of usage of it and the degree in which they pursue it," said Stephen Elliot, an analyst for independent research firm IDC.

The Little Guy

The systems management sector is crowded, but Harmon believes it's one in which the little guy still has room to grow.

Motive, along with peers SupportSoft Inc. (SPRT) and Altiris Inc. (ATRS), target the emerging self-management market that larger companies such as IBM or BMC Software Inc. (BMC) haven't entered.

In the last quarter, Altiris' revenue jumped 75% from a year ago and SupportSoft surged 34%. In its first full quarter as a public company, Motive posted a 30% gain in core revenue, which excludes revenue from lingering contracts related to discontinued products.

Neither Altiris and SupportSoft were immune to the downturn in the software sector, but both have rallied in the coming weeks. Altiris traded recently at $24.50, with SupportSoft at $10.09.

In contrast, IBM's revenue ticked up 7%, and BMC's revenue rose 5%. Both companies' businesses, however, are vastly larger and more diversified than their smaller rivals.

Motive owns a technological edge in the niche self-management system market.

Managing networks is increasingly complex and technology departments have been squeezed for resources. Products which manage themselves helps solve this problem, said Needham & Co. analyst Richard Davis. He doesn't own a stake in Motive, but his firm was a co-manager of its IPO.

In an Aug. 5 research note, Davis, like several other Wall Street analysts, initiated coverage with a buy rating. Since then, the stock has rallied back closer to its $10 IPO price.